Ethiopia Tigray War (2020–2022)

The Tigray War was the deadliest conflict in the world between 2020 and 2022, killing between 385,000 and 600,000 people in two years - a death toll that dwarfs the contemporary wars in Ukraine and Gaza that received far greater international attention. It combined the features of a civil war (Ethiopian federal government vs. the TPLF, which had governed Ethiopia for thirty years), a proxy war (Eritrea fighting alongside the ENDF against its historic adversary the TPLF), and a mass atrocity campaign (systematic rape as a weapon of war, ethnic killings, deliberate siege-induced starvation affecting up to 5 million people). That it occurred in Africa, involved no Western military powers, and remained under an information blackout for much of its duration contributed to its comparative neglect in global discourse. The war's origins trace to the 2018 political transition that brought Abiy Ahmed to power. Abiy's ascent displaced the TPLF from its thirty-year dominance of Ethiopian federal politics. The TPLF retreated to Tigray Region, where it retained regional authority, and relations between Mekelle and Addis Ababa deteriorated rapidly. The TPLF held regional elections in Tigray in September 2020 in defiance of federal postponement of all elections due to COVID-19; the federal government declared the Tigray regional government illegitimate. On the night of 3-4 November 2020, TPLF forces attacked the Northern Command headquarters of the ENDF in Tigray - a pre-emptive strike against federal forces that the TPLF framed as defensive. The federal response was rapid and militarily decisive in its initial phase: within three weeks, ENDF forces backed by Eritrea's EDF (which entered from the north without public acknowledgment by either government) and Amhara regional forces had captured Mekelle, Tigray's capital. Abiy declared the operation over on 28 November 2020 - an announcement that proved catastrophically premature. The TPLF had dispersed into the mountains and would return. The war's second phase, the TPLF counteroffensive from June 2021, reversed everything. The Tigray Defense Forces recaptured Mekelle on 28 June 2021 and launched a counteroffensive deep into the Amhara and Afar regions, pushing south along the main highway toward Addis Ababa. By November 2021, TDF forces allied with the OLA had reached within 85 miles of the capital; Abiy called on all capable Ethiopian citizens to fight. A government counteroffensive from December 2021, using drone warfare (Turkish Bayraktar TB2, Chinese CH-4, Iranian Shahed drones) and massive mobilisation, eventually rolled the TDF back. By mid-2022, the front lines had shifted back to the Tigray borders. Throughout both phases, atrocities were documented by all parties. The Eritrean Defense Forces were implicated in systematic massacres and mass rape in Tigray, including the Aksum massacre (November 2020) in which hundreds of civilians were killed in and around the ancient Aksum church complex. ENDF forces committed mass killings and sexual violence. Amhara forces conducted ethnic cleansing of Tigrayans in Western Tigray, which they claimed as historically Amhara. The TPLF and TDF conducted killings of civilians in Amhara and Afar regions during the counteroffensive. The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights and Ethiopia's own Human Rights Commission conducted a joint investigation that documented 'serious violations of international human rights, humanitarian and refugee law by all parties,' with the highest levels of violations against Tigrayans. The Pretoria Agreement of 2 November 2022, brokered by the African Union under Olusegun Obasanjo, Uhuru Kenyatta, and Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, ended the war's active phase. It was followed by the Nairobi Declaration of 12 November 2022, which outlined DDR modalities. The agreement's implementation has been critically incomplete. Eritrean forces have not fully withdrawn. Over one million Tigrayans displaced from Western Tigray remain in camps three years later. The DDR process has been slow, with initial targets of 250,000 combatants expanding to 400,000. Western Tigray's political status remains unresolved, the most contentious single issue in the peace process. The TPLF has fractured between a faction aligned with Getachew Reda (the federal-appointed interim administrator) and one loyal to historic chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, with the latter allegedly receiving Eritrean support. By January 2026, armed clashes had resumed in parts of Tigray. The TPLF's central committee reinstated the Tigray Government Assembly (parliament) in defiance of federal authority in May 2026. The federal government accused Eritrea of coordinating with the TPLF, Fano, and OLA. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos sent a formal letter in February 2026 demanding Eritrean withdrawal from Ethiopian border areas. The Atlantic Council assessed in May 2026 that Ethiopia and Eritrea were 'on the brink of war again.'

The Tigray War's humanitarian consequences were of a scale rarely seen in any conflict since the mid-twentieth century. At the height of the war, an estimated 5.5 million people in Tigray faced severe food insecurity due to a deliberate federal siege that blocked humanitarian aid for months. An Ethiopian government blockade cut electricity, communications, banking services, and medical supply chains from Tigray for extended periods. Of Tigray's 853 health facilities, 86% were at least partially damaged; 232 were made completely unusable. Maternal mortality rates estimated to have risen from 186 per 100,000 pre-war to 840 per 100,000. Sexual violence was systematic and enormous in scale. The UN, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch documented mass rape and gang rape by EDF, ENDF, and Amhara forces as deliberate weapons of war. The TPLF and TDF also committed sexual violence during the counteroffensive. By 2022, clinicians in Tigray had treated tens of thousands of rape survivors; the full scale is unknown given access restrictions. The Western Tigray displacement crisis remains unresolved. More than one million Tigrayans displaced from the Wolkait and Raya areas - territories that Amhara forces claim as their own - remain in makeshift camps three years after the Pretoria Agreement, unable to return to their homes. Continued Eritrean occupation of northern Tigray territories prevents return of further hundreds of thousands.